Option Market: K12 Inc Risk Hits An Elevated Level

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) Risk

Date Published:

2016-07-18

PREFACE

This is a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which
come directly from the option market for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) .

Risk as reflected by the option market has hit
a slightly elevated level relative to the company’s past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of
($11.90, $15.00) within the next 30 calendar days.

LRN OPTION MARKET RISK

The short-term risk for a stock is reflected in the option market by a measure called the 30-day implied volatility or IV30®.
The IV30 is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days — it’s forward looking.
K12 Inc shows an IV30 of 50.1%, which is a slightly elevated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for LRN has shown an IV30 annual low of
38.6% and an annual high of 72.8%, meaning that LRN is at the 34% percentile right now. Here’s a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

LRN
Current IV30    
LRN
Low IV30    
LRN
High IV30   
50.1% 38.6% 72.8%

01020304050607080Current IV30Low IV30High IV30

The option market reflects less risk in the next 30 calendar days for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) than on average.

Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 39.03%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days.

Let’s turn to a chart to see what’s going on.

 0510152025303540455055Next 30 DaysLast 30 Days

Note how much higher the future risk for K12 Inc is priced (50.1%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (39.0%).

K12 Inc Risk Rating

The LRN risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

↪ The IV30 is below the annual average.

↪ The IV30 is above 50%.

↪ The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.

↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.

↪ The stock has moved +33.0% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.

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Colorado Hybrid School Takes Students to New Heights with FuelEd Curriculum, Combining In-Class and At-Home, Online Instruction



HERNDON, Va., Sept. 9, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — At Poudre School District Global Academy (PGA), an innovative hybrid school in Fort Collins, Colorado, students attend blended classes on campus and take online courses from home, and what they are achieving is extraordinary. Scores for grades 2-8 in math and reading on year-to-year Measures of Academic Progress® (MAP®) assessments show 140 to 240 percent growth, with the highest scores in grades 6-8—when students typically see a slight decline.  

In this K-12 school serving almost 200 students, the successes don't end there. The number of high school students being held back a grade dropped in the 2014-15 school year by nearly two-thirds—from 19 down to 7. And, the high school completion rate for secondary classes as well as college-credit bearing courses soared as well through PGA's concurrent enrollment program with local colleges.

PGA partners with Fuel Education™ (FuelEd™), which provides personalized learning solutions designed to enable schools and districts to implement successful online and blended learning programs. Using FuelEd online curriculum and content, PGA students work at their own pace at home three days per week, and attend teacher-led classes on campus the other two days each week.

The FuelEd curriculum is tailored to each student's unique needs, and allows for integration of teacher-created content. "Our teachers are rock stars," said Heather Hiebsch, PGA principal. "They look at the data to see what the students are mastering and where they have gaps. It's not 'What do I plan to teach today?' but rather 'What do these individual students need to learn today?'"

For the core courses, PGA employs its own local teachers, who oversee instruction for students whether learning at home or at school. For the elective courses offered through FuelEd, PGA uses FuelEd's certified instructors.

"FuelEd really listens to us," said Hiebsch. "I can tell them that I want to try something or that I think something is coming next, and I have their ear. They are flexible and responsive to what we want and need."

In addition to the high quality online curriculum and dedicated educators, Hiebsch attributes PGA's success to the hybrid learning model, parental involvement, and "the community we've built," she said.

Since opening in 2009 as a credit recovery and dropout prevention school, PGA has transformed into a small, personalized school serving a mix of former homeschoolers and students coming from traditional schools. Their learning needs are as diverse as in any traditional school—from those with learning disabilities to those seeking Advanced Placement (AP®) courses.

PGA students consider the hybrid model "the best of both worlds," said Hiebsch. "They're in charge, going it on their own, but they also have social connection and one-on-one help from teachers." In the past, students would attend PGA for a year while working on something else that was happening in their lives, she said. "Now we are attracting a broad range of students and have more kids returning every year. We even have a wait list at all grade levels, which says it all."

Gregg Levin, FuelEd general manager, said, "It is an honor to partner with the outstanding educators at Poudre School District Global Academy in delivering content and instruction for its winning hybrid learning model. PGA's success truly demonstrates how dedication and innovation can change student outcomes."

Since the school opened, more than 500 PGA students have used Fuel Education curriculum. In addition, each school year about 500 students at other Poudre School District schools take supplemental online courses, such as AP courses, world languages and electives, provided by FuelEd.

About Fuel EducationFuel Education partners with school districts to fuel personalized learning and transform the education experience inside and outside the classroom. The company provides innovative solutions for preK-12th grade that empower districts to implement successful online and blended learning programs. Its open, easy-to-use Personalized Learning Platform, PEAK, enables teachers to customize courses using their own content, FuelEd courses and titles, third-party content, and open educational resources. Fuel Education offers the industry's largest catalog of digital curriculum, certified instruction, professional development, and educational services. FuelEd has helped 2,000 school districts to improve student outcomes and better serve diverse student populations. To learn more, visit getfueled.com and Twitter.

©2015 Fuel Education LLC. All rights reserved. Fuel Education and FuelEd are trademarks of Fuel Education LLC or its affiliates. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Logo – http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20140821/138483

SOURCE Fuel Education

RELATED LINKS
http://www.getfueled.com

Online public school debuts in Eufaula

Eufaula City Schools earlier this month announced the opening of the Alabama Virtual Academy at Eufaula City Schools – a new statewide online public school.

Alabama Department of Education approved the new institution, which is currently open to students across the state.



Enlarge

The Alabama Virtual Academy will serve students in grades K-2 for the first year and expand to offer additional grades in the coming years.

The online school is a tuition-free, full-time public school.

Classes began on Sept. 8 and the school is currently accepting new enrollments.

Enrollment information for the school can be found by clicking here

"Eufaula City Schools is excited to offer this innovative online public school to families in Alabama," said Eddie Tyler, superintendent of Eufaula City Schools. "Technology is the future in education, and online schools are a proven educational model. Our online public school will provide families a high-quality option and give students the individualized instruction and support to succeed. Alabama Virtual Academy reflects our school system's mission of 'building our future on a tradition of excellence.'"

Students enrolled in the school will learn outside the traditional classroom, while participating in teacher-led instruction online. State-certified teachers will work in close partnership with parents who serve as learning coaches for the students.

The new school is made possible by a partnership with K12 Inc. – the country's largest provider of K-12 online and blended school offerings.

Legislation passed by the state legislature requires all Alabama school systems to adopt a plan to serve students through online schools by 2016-17.

Tyler said the Eufaula City School System is in a strong position to meet that requirement and expand education opportunities for students in its school system and across the state.

"Our partnership with K12 allows us to leverage the expertise and best practices used by a highly qualified team of experienced educators without impacting our system's existing educational programs or personnel," Tyler said. "We are also excited about the opportunity to work with K12 to expand the number of courses we can offer to the students in our school system."

Colorado hybrid school taps into personalized learning

September 14th, 2015

Achievement increasing by up to 240 percent in math and reading

At Poudre School District Global Academy (PGA), a hybrid school in Fort Collins, Colo., students attend blended classes on campus and take online courses from home, and district educators say a personalized learning solution has had a positive impact in a number of academic areas.

Scores for grades 2-8 in math and reading on year-to-year Measures of Academic Progress (MAP) assessments show 140 to 240 percent growth, with the highest scores in grades 6-8—when students typically see a slight decline.

In this K-12 school serving almost 200 students, the successes don’t end there. The number of high school students being held back a grade dropped in the 2014-15 school year by nearly two-thirds—from 19 down to 7. And, the high school completion rate for secondary classes as well as college-credit bearing courses increased as well through PGA’s concurrent enrollment program with local colleges.

PGA partners with Fuel Education (FuelEd), which provides personalized learning solutions designed to enable schools and districts to implement successful online and blended learning programs. Using FuelEd online curriculum and content, PGA students work at their own pace at home three days per week, and attend teacher-led classes on campus the other two days each week.

The FuelEd curriculum is tailored to each student’s unique needs, and allows for integration of teacher-created content. “Our teachers are rock stars,” said Heather Hiebsch, PGA principal. “They look at the data to see what the students are mastering and where they have gaps. It’s not ‘What do I plan to teach today?’ but rather ‘What do these individual students need to learn today?’”

For the core courses, PGA employs its own local teachers, who oversee instruction for students whether learning at home or at school. For the elective courses offered through FuelEd, PGA uses FuelEd’s certified instructors.

“FuelEd really listens to us,” said Hiebsch. “I can tell them that I want to try something or that I think something is coming next, and I have their ear. They are flexible and responsive to what we want and need.”

In addition to the high quality online curriculum and dedicated educators, Hiebsch attributes PGA’s success to the hybrid learning model, parental involvement, and “the community we’ve built,” she said.

Since opening in 2009 as a credit recovery and dropout prevention school, PGA has transformed into a small, personalized school serving a mix of former homeschoolers and students coming from traditional schools. Their learning needs are as diverse as in any traditional school—from those with learning disabilities to those seeking Advanced Placement (AP) courses.

Since the school opened, more than 500 PGA students have used Fuel Education curriculum. In addition, each school year about 500 students at other Poudre School District schools take supplemental online courses, such as AP courses, world languages and electives, provided by FuelEd.

Material from a press release was used in this report.

Virtual schools coming to every Alabama school system by 2016-2017

(Julie Bennett/jbennett@al.com)

Sen. Dick Brewbaker, R-MontgomeryMike Cason | mcason@al.com

Online courses are not new to Alabama public schools, but lawmakers say the state is barely tapping the potential.

The Legislature is trying to spark a surge in virtual school options.

Every Alabama school system would be required to establish a policy to offer some level of virtual school for high school students by the 2016-2017 academic year under a bill lawmakers passed Thursday.

“It's not a solution for everybody,” said Sen. Dick Brewbaker, R-Montgomery, sponsor of the bill. “But for a certain population of students, it's a really good option.”

Alabama launched the ACCESS distance learning program during Gov. Bob Riley's administration. Students can take classes that aren't available at their schools, like advanced courses and electives.

ACCESS uses some live video feeds of classroom teachers. But most of the courses are taught through web-based programs, said Malissa Valdes-Hubert, spokeswoman for the state Department of Education.

Students turn in their work and communicate with teachers online.

As of April 24, more than 27,000 students were enrolled in ACCESS, which is available in all high schools and some middle schools.

Brewbaker said he hears complaints from superintendents about ACCESS, including the quality of courses.

The Department of Education, in response to the senator's criticism, said it “continually strives to make ACCESS courses as engaging and rigorous as possible” and responds when problems are identified by teachers.

Brewbaker's bill would create a task force to study and make recommendations on improving ACCESS.

But while improving the state program is important, Brewbaker said it's vital for local school systems to launch their own initiatives not necessarily bound to the state program.

“Local boards have to do something because online education is here to stay,” Brewbaker said. “In a couple of years, you'll know what the best models are.”

A student enrolled in a virtual program would count as attending the local school in determining per-student funding.

Virtual school students would be required to take the same standardized assessments as other students.

They could participate in sports and other extracurricular activities at the school they are zoned for.

Local school boards would have wide latitude. They could hire a commercial vendor, contract with another school board or a university or rely on ACCESS.

“We tried not to be too specific as to what that would look like because we recognize that every single school district in the state of Alabama is unique in its origin and its community,” said Rep. Ed Henry, R-Hartselle, who handled Brewbaker's bill in the House of Representatives.

The Alabama Association of School Boards had a task force study virtual schools and supports the legislation, AASB Executive Director Sally Howell said.

“I think this will be an incubator of great ideas,” Howell said.

She said it's important that school systems can set their own criteria for student participation.

She said virtual school would probably not be the best option for a student who struggles with reading, for example.

Howell said the virtual school option could encourage some parents who have taken their children from public schools to return.

Brewbaker said some parents have turned to private school or home school for reasons other than academics, reasons that could be negated by virtual school.

“They may not want their kid on a bus for two hours, or may have safety concerns,” Brewbaker said.

The House passed the bill 82-20 on Thursday, sending it to Gov. Robert Bentley.

The governor had not signed it into law as of Friday. The governor's office said it was reviewing the bill.

Alabama and national politics

Company Shares of K12 Inc Drops by -1.48%

Company Shares of K12 Inc Drops by -1.48%

Posted by Erica Dunham on March 8, 2015 // Leave Your Comment

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) has dropped 1.48% during the past week, however, the bigger picture is still very bullish; the shares have posted positive gains of 0.6% in the last 4 weeks. The shares have outperformed the S&P 500 by 0.1% in the past week but underperformed the index by 0.16% in the last 4 weeks.

In the latest trading session, K12 Inc (LRN) climbed higher by 0.01 points or 0.06%. The shares opened the session at 16.5 and supported by strong buying, continued to tread higher throughout the day. The price hit an intraday high of 16.965 before the last trade at 16.68. During this strong upmove, the volume was recorded to be 182,203 shares. The shares had ended the previous session at 16.67. The 52-week high and the 52-week low are in close contact with each other, at 26.2 and 10.07 respectively. Technically, the 60-day simple moving average of 13.57 should act as a strong support level. The trading currency is in USD.

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) has a short ratio of 2.31. Higher the ratio, the more pressurized the stock will be, lower the ratio, lesser the duress on the stock. The short interest has seen a change of 37.38% in the past month. The 3-month change in short interest was measured at -35.94%. The ratio of monthly shorts to total outstanding shares stands at 0.021. The average daily volume for the last 20 days is 214,223 shares. The 20-day volume is 0.56% of the total shares outstanding. A low short ratio indicates marginal bearishness while a high short ratio represents excessive pessimism.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reviewed the performance of the state’s charter schools and concluded that most were not meeting their academic targets and not closing achievement gaps.


 


Minnesota was the home of the charter movement, which began with high expectations as a progressive experiment but has turned into a favorite mechanism in many states to promote privatization of public education and to generate profits for charter corporations like Imagine, Charter Schools USA, and K12. Today, charter advocates claim that their privately managed charters will “save low-income students from failing public schools,” but the Minnesota experience suggests that charters face the same challenges as public schools, which is magnified by high teacher turnover in charter schools.


 


 


The Star-Tribune article by reporter Kim McGuire begins:


 


 


Students in most Minnesota charter schools are failing to hit learning targets and are not achieving adequate academic growth, according to a Star Tribune analysis of school performance data.

The analysis of 128 of the state’s 157 charter schools show that the gulf between the academic success of its white and minority students widened at nearly two-thirds of those schools last year. Slightly more than half of charter schools students were proficient in reading, dramatically worse than traditional public schools, where 72 percent were proficient.


 

Between 2011 and 2014, 20 charter schools failed every year to meet the state’s expectations for academic growth each year, signaling that some of Minnesota’s most vulnerable students had stagnated academically.

A top official with the Minnesota Department of Education says she is troubled by the data, which runs counter to “the public narrative” that charter schools are generally superior to public schools.


 

“We hear, as we should, about the highfliers and the schools that are beating the odds, but I think we need to pay even more attention to the schools that are persistently failing to meet expectations,” said Charlene Briner, the Minnesota Department of Education’s chief of staff. Charter school advocates strongly defend their performance. They say the vast majority of schools that aren’t showing enough improvement serve at-risk populations, students who are poor, homeless, with limited English proficiency, or are in danger of dropping out.

“Our students, they’re coming from different environments, both home and school, where they’ve never had the chance to be successful,” said April Harrison, executive director of LoveWorks Academy, a Minneapolis charter school that has the state’s lowest rating. “No one has ever taken the time to say, ‘What’s going on with you? How can I help you?’ That’s what we do.”


 

Minnesota is the birthplace of the charter school movement and a handful of schools have received national acclaim for their accomplishments, particularly when it comes to making strong academic gains with low-income students of color. But the new information is fueling critics who say the charter school experiment has failed to deliver on teaching innovation.

“Schools promised they were going to help turn around things for these very challenging student populations,” said Kyle Serrette, director of education for the New York City-based Center for Popular Democracy. “Now, here we are 20 years later and they’re realizing that they have the same troubles of public schools systems.”

More than half of schools analyzed from 2011 to 2014 were also failing to meet the department’s expectations for academic growth, the gains made from year to year in reading and math.
















via Diane Ravitch’s blog http://ift.tt/17mj0Qy

Morning Buzz: K12 Inc , Solera Holdings | FiCo

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) may face some pressure in the coming sessions. The short interest has registered a change of -9.3% for the month. The total shorted shares measure up to 0.027 times the outstanding shares. Over the preceding 3 months, short interest has changed to 26.91%. The company has a short ratio of 9.13. A low ratio indicates that the short interest is still on the lower end while a high ratio represents aggressive short positions. The daily volume has averaged 96,678 shares in the last 20 days. The volume in the preceding 20 trading sessions has been calculated at 0.26% of the total outstanding shares. K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) is a hold, according to the latest average broker rating of 2.67. The number of analysts in this rating is 6. Research Analysts at Zacks has the counter a rating of 3, which implies that investors can hold their investments in the company. It is advised that fresh investments be made in the counter only when it is undervalued.

Skechers U.S.A says strong demand , K12 Inc awarded 3 year contract | Markets Insider

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) was awarded a three-year contract to provide the academic curriculum for Pennsylvania’s Agora Cyber Charter School commencing in the 2015-2016 school year. K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) downgraded to Market Perform at Barrington following guidance. Investors in K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) should brace themselves for a big move in the stock price in the coming trading sessions. The technicals and the indicators suggest that the stock at 12.21 per share should continue to head higher; however, a break close to the 100-day and the 50-day moving averages at 19.05 and 15.83.respectively, could lead to aggressive selling.The Relative Strength Index reading at 76.6771 is at a crucial point and any dip in strength could give the bears an opportunity to maul the stock. The next strong technical support would then lie at the 200-day moving average of 20.77.

Quicklink: Bad News: K12 Inc Enters the Preschool Market; by Diane Ravitch | OpEdNews

Quicklink: Bad News: K12 Inc Enters the Preschool Market; by Diane Ravitch

Ravitch says : 'Here is the latest bad news for American children: Having created a string of low-performing but profitable virtual charter schools, K12 Inc. has announced that it is entering the lucrative preschool market. Equity investor Whitney Tilson warned other investors last year against K12, which he compared to the subprime mortgage industry, but the company keeps coming up with new ideas to put children in front of computers and absorb public dollars'…. 'According to the U.S. Department of Education, there is a robust body of evidence and research demonstrating that high-quality, early learning programs help children arrive at kindergarten ready to succeed in school and in life' but as this post shows, there are many charlatans and privateers are seeing dollar signs.