K12 upgraded to Overweight By First Analysis

August 10, 2016 10:01 am

Writer: Camille Ainsworth

Posted In:

US Broker Ratings

In an analyst rating update on Wednesday shares of K12 (NYSE:LRN) had their rating upgraded by analysts at First Analysis.

The broker said it has now set a ‘Overweight’ rating on shares of K12 with a price target of 14. The price target according to the broker shows a possible increase of 23.35% from the current stock price of 11.35.

Over the last twelve months K12’s share price has decreased from 14.88 to 11.35, changing by -23.72%.

The companies 50 day moving average is 12.68 and its 200 day moving average is 11.16. The 52 week high K12’s shares have peaked at is 15 whilst the 52 week low for the company’s shares is 7.11.

K12 has 37,492,000 shares which are currently outstanding with a price of 11.35 calculating K12’s market capitalisation to 425.53M USD .

K12 Inc. (K12) is a technology-based education company. The Company offers curriculum, software systems and educational services designed to facilitate individualized learning for students in kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12). It provides a range of technology-based educational products and solutions to public school districts, public schools, virtual charter schools, private schools and families. The Company offers a set of products and services primarily to three lines of business, which include public school programs, which consists of managed programs and non-managed programs, Institutional Sales, which includes educational products and services sold to school districts, public schools and other educational institutions that it does not manage and international and private pay schools, which consists of private schools. The Company offers a range of learning applications, which include mobile learning, interactive games, virtual labs, e-book and digital book distribution.

Trading Review: Looking at Unusual Volume for K12, Inc. (NYSE:LRN)

by Engelwood Staff August 9, 2016

Shares of K12, Inc. (NYSE:LRN) are experiencing unusual volume during today’s trading.  While the stock price moved along with the volume change, shares are touching $11.04 at the time of writing.  The day’s total volume of 365438 this morning is in contrast from the three-month daily average of 153.50K.  When we divide the current volume by the three-month average volume, we get a relative volume of 4.15.

The difference between yesterday’s closing price and today’s opening price was -6.86%.  

Why is this important?

Trading volume is a hugely important consideration for any investor.  By watching how many shares are trading hands and looking for any changes in that activity, trading opportunities can be spotted along with a deeper understanding of the reliability of other indicators on the stock.  A significant increase in trading volume means that more than double the average amount of stocks are moving.  When volume is decreased significantly, it may indicate there is an issue that shareholders should watch out for.  It’s also important to take into consideration how long the unusual volume sustains for.  If it’s only the one trading day, it can be dismissed as an anomaly.

Looking Back

K12, Inc. (NYSE:LRN)‘s market capital, the total dollar value of all of their outstanding shares, is 509.09m.  Including today’s unusual volume, K12, Inc.‘s stock is performing at 45.80% on the year.  For the week, the stock is performing -1.53%.  Over the past month the firm’s stock is -1.00%, 7.18% for the last quarter, 33.09% for the past six-months and -9.77% for the last year.

Current levels places the company’s stock about -20.59% from the 50-day high and 0.16% away from the 50-day low.  

Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and information expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any company stakeholders, financial professionals, or analysts. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized to make stock portfolio or financial decisions as they are based only on limited and open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of any analysts or financial professionals.

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Option Market: K12 Inc Risk Hits An Elevated Level

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) Risk

Date Published:

2016-07-18

PREFACE

This is a proprietary risk rating for the next 30-days built by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of interactions of data points, many of which
come directly from the option market for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) .

Risk as reflected by the option market has hit
a slightly elevated level relative to the company’s past. The option market reflects a 95% confidence interval stock price range of
($11.90, $15.00) within the next 30 calendar days.

LRN OPTION MARKET RISK

The short-term risk for a stock is reflected in the option market by a measure called the 30-day implied volatility or IV30®.
The IV30 is the risk reflected by the option market in the stock price for the next 30 calendar days — it’s forward looking.
K12 Inc shows an IV30 of 50.1%, which is a slightly elevated level for the company relative to its past.

The option market for LRN has shown an IV30 annual low of
38.6% and an annual high of 72.8%, meaning that LRN is at the 34% percentile right now. Here’s a table of the data before we dig into the risk rating further.

LRN
Current IV30    
LRN
Low IV30    
LRN
High IV30   
50.1% 38.6% 72.8%

01020304050607080Current IV30Low IV30High IV30

The option market reflects less risk in the next 30 calendar days for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) than on average.

Further, if we look backwards, the stock has a realized 30-day historical volatility, called the HV30, of 39.03%.

We have an unusual situation now where the IV30 is depressed relative to the past, but even with that risk pricing, the option market reflects the likelihood of a greater stock movement in the next 30-days than the stock has realized in the last 30-days.

Let’s turn to a chart to see what’s going on.

 0510152025303540455055Next 30 DaysLast 30 Days

Note how much higher the future risk for K12 Inc is priced (50.1%) compared to what happened just in the last 30-days (39.0%).

K12 Inc Risk Rating

The LRN risk rating is at 3.5, where the rating goes from one (the lowest risk) to five (the highest risk). The driving factors for the 3.5 rating are:

↪ The IV30 is below the annual average.

↪ The IV30 is above 50%.

↪ The HV30 is below the 20th percentile.

↪ The IV30 is above the HV30.

↪ The stock has moved +33.0% over the last 3-months which does indicate some elevated risk.

WHY THIS MATTERS

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K12 Inc. Continues Its Downward Bounce

Posted

By David Safier

on at 5:00 PM

click to enlarge

k12-inc.-stock12-21-15.jpg

I’ve been following the fortunes of K12 Inc., the for-profit, publicly traded, online school corporation, since 2008 when I broke the story that it had been outsourcing student essays to an essay-grading company in India without informing the parents. (K12 Inc. said it stopped the practice soon after the story broke). The corporation is the poster child for everything wrong with the for-profit education model where profits, rather than education, drive the enterprise. For awhile, K12 Inc. was flying high despite its reputation for low student achievement and high student turnover. That all changed in the middle of 2013 after the stock peaked at 36. As you can see from the chart at the top of the post, it’s taken a bumpy downhill ride since them. Current stock price is in the nine dollar range.

Local angle: K12 Inc. operates Arizona Virtual Academy (AZVA) which has about 4,600 students statewide.

You never know, the stock prices could reverse themselves and head upwards again—which, after all, is the primary purpose of any publicly traded corporation—but I doubt it. K12 Inc. is facing a whole lot of obstacles, all of which help tamp down investor confidence.

A recent study concludes that online charter schools in general, K12 Inc. included, are doing a lousy job of educating their students. Three research institutions participated in the study, including CREDO out of Stanford University, which tends to be pro-privatization and whose last comparison of charter and district schools had charters coming out a little ahead. (In its previous study, district schools came out a little ahead.) The academic growth of online school students is so low that, according to CREDO, it’s as if students missed half a year’s learning in reading and a whole year’s learning in math compared to district schools. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Online schools like those run by K12 Inc. amount to home schooling with benefits. If you have motivated students whose parents keep them on task, they’ll learn from the parent-assisted curriculum. But because of the need to keep student numbers growing in the face of one-third of the students leaving every year, K12 Inc. actively recruits students who are unsuited for education that comes to them through a computer in their homes. Yet those students are encouraged to stay enrolled because, like other charter schools (and district schools as well), online charters get money from the state on a per student basis. Lose students, lose money.

Currently, K12 Inc. is being investigated over possible securities laws violations. It’s been alleged that there is a “substantial disconnect between compensation and performance results.” This isn’t the first time stockholders have complained about the company. Previously, stockholders sued because they said K12 Inc. inflated its schools’ academic results. During the most recent shareholder meeting, investors voted down the corporation’s plan for executive pay. The previous year, the CEO received $5.33 million and the CFO received $3.6 million.

Some teachers are none too happy with their online schools, most vocally at California Virtual Academies (CAVA), where teachers have been complaining for years about the school. In The Public Interest wrote an in depth study of CAVA detailing problems with student performance levels and poor teaching environment as well as the use of revenue for advertising, executive pay and profit.

Finally, some schools have left or are considering leaving the K12 Inc. fold as their contracts with the corporation expire. The latest is Massachusetts Virtual Academy (MAVA) whose contract is up in June, 2016. It’s considering two other online curriculum providers.

Put this all together, and you have a corporation in serious trouble. 

$-0.26 EPS Expected for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) in Quarter

Sep 15, 2015
Markets Staff

Analysts on the Street are predicting that K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) will report earnings of $-0.26 per share for the current fiscal quarter. This figure is representative of the total sell-side analysts polled by Zack’s Research covering the equity. Most recently K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) reported earnings per share of $0.18 for the fiscal period ended on 2015-06-30.

The actual reported number was 0.09 away from the consensus mean at the time of the release, or a surprise factor of 100%.

In total, brokerage analysts polled by Zack’s have a consensus target price of $N/A on the name. This is the mean one year estimate based on the N/A polled research firms covering the equity. The latest revision which was taken into account in the consensus was posted on N/A.

The average broker recommendation (ABR) is an arithmetical calculation of the individual ratings contributed by sell-side analysts to produce a Consensus Analyst Rating for each stock. Ratings are scaled on a 1 to 5 scale where 5 represents a Strong Sell and 1 represents a Strong Buy. K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) currently has an ABR of 2 based on N/A research analysts providing projections. Of this group, the broker that sees the biggest upside to the current stock price sees it reaching $N/A within the next 12 months. The most bearish analyst has the price target set at $N/A for the same one year time frame.

Looking further ahead at the long term growth projections for the company, analysts are anticipating earnings per share of $N/A for the current year. The analyst with the most positive view is estimating earnings per share of $N/A, while the most bearish is estimating EPS of $N/A for the year.

$-0.26 EPS Expected for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) in Quarter

Sep 15, 2015 Markets Staff

Analysts on the Street are predicting that K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) will report earnings of $-0.26 per share for the current fiscal quarter. This figure is representative of the total sell-side analysts polled by Zack’s Research covering the equity. Most recently K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) reported earnings per share of $0.18 for the fiscal period ended on 2015-06-30.

The actual reported number was 0.09 away from the consensus mean at the time of the release, or a surprise factor of 100%.

In total, brokerage analysts polled by Zack’s have a consensus target price of $N/A on the name. This is the mean one year estimate based on the N/A polled research firms covering the equity. The latest revision which was taken into account in the consensus was posted on N/A.

The average broker recommendation (ABR) is an arithmetical calculation of the individual ratings contributed by sell-side analysts to produce a Consensus Analyst Rating for each stock. Ratings are scaled on a 1 to 5 scale where 5 represents a Strong Sell and 1 represents a Strong Buy. K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) currently has an ABR of 2 based on N/A research analysts providing projections. Of this group, the broker that sees the biggest upside to the current stock price sees it reaching $N/A within the next 12 months. The most bearish analyst has the price target set at $N/A for the same one year time frame.

Looking further ahead at the long term growth projections for the company, analysts are anticipating earnings per share of $N/A for the current year. The analyst with the most positive view is estimating earnings per share of $N/A, while the most bearish is estimating EPS of $N/A for the year.

Stock Rating Update on K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN)

on

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) has been issued a 2 rating by the sell-side brokerage firms covering the stock. Basing the rating on a simplified scale where 1 represents a Buy and 5 represents a Sell, this is the average rating based on the N/A firms polled by Zacks Research. To determine the direction the stock sentiment is headed, it’s noted that the stock had a rating of 2 three months ago.

The sell-side brokers covering the equity also have issued projected stock price objectives on the company. The one year projections range from a high of $N/A to the low of $N/A. The mean price target of all analysts taken into consideration by Zacks is $N/A.

Earnings at a Glance

Near term, Wall Street brokerage analysts are expecting K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) to report earnings of $0.09 per share for the fiscal quarter ending on 2015-06-30. This is the calculated earnings per share estimate from the N/A polled by Zacks. In taking a look further ahead three to five years, analysts have a long-term growth EPS estimate of $N/A. This number is the best estimate for sales and earnings over that time frame.

Stock holders will be watching when K12 Inc reports their next earnings results on 2015-08-04. Most recently the firm announced earnings per share of $0.45 for the quarter which ended on 2015-03-31. Compared to analyst expectations just before the announcement, the actual results were $0.07 away from that number, or a surprise factor of 18.42%.

K12 Inc. (K12) is a technology-based education company. K12 offers curriculum, software systems and educational services designed to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12th grade, or K-12. The Company provides a continuum of technology-based educational products and solutions to districts, public schools, private schools, charter schools and families. Its products include Curriculum, Pre-K and K-8 Courses, Online School Platform-Learning Management System, High School Courses, Innovative Learning Applications, School Management Systems and PEAK12. Its managed public schools includes Full-time virtual schools and Blended schools, which includes Flex schools, Passport schools, Discovery schools and Other blended schools. Its international and private pay business includes Managed private schools, The Keystone School, George Washington University Online HS, K12 International Academy, IS Berne, WEB and Independent course sales (Consumer).

K12 Inc Price Target Update

K12 Inc Price Target Update

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN): The mean short term price target for K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) has been established at $14 per share. The higher price target estimate is at $14 and the lower price target estimate is expected at $14 according to 1 Analyst. The stock price is expected to vary based on the estimate which is suggested by the standard deviation value of $0

The short interest information of the company was disclosed in the recent information. The short interest in K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) has increased from 583,024 on January 30,2015 to 824,325 on February 13,2015. The change was measured at 241,301 shares or 41.4%. The leftover shorts were 2.7% of the floated shares. The days to cover are 2, given the average daily volume of 355,730 shares.

Wells Fargo downgrades its view on K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) according to the research report released by the firm to its investors. The shares have now been rated Market Perform by the stock experts at the ratings house. Earlier, the counter had a rating of Outperform.

K12 Inc (NYSE:LRN) rose 3.91% or 0.65 points in daily trade. The stock opened at $16.57 and increased volatility pushed the price to extremes of $17.32 and $16.57, before the session concluded the last trade at $17.28. The rising volatility also led to a sharp increase in volume which was recorded at 290,341 shares. The previous session of the stock had ended at $16.63. The yearly nadir of the share price is $10.07 and the yearly zenith is $26.2. The market cap of the scrip is $664 million and the company has 38,412,000 shares in free circulation.

Thursday Watch List: K12 Inc , First Republic Bank , FEI Co | Winston View

Hefty gains were seen in K12 Inc (LRN) as the shares spiked 2.8169% or 0.44 points. The volume was measured at 446,547 shares as per the closing data. The stock price opened for trading at 15.51 and settled the day at 16.06. During the day, it reached 16.15 on the upside and skid to a low of 15.51. The previous close of the shares was registered at 15.62. The stock has a 52-week high of 26.2 and a 52-week low of 10.07. According to the latest information available, the stock now has a 30-day simple moving average of 11.84 and a 60-day simple moving average of 11.97. The trading currency is in USD.

K12 Inc. Receives Average Target Price of $14 | Stafford Daily

K12 Inc. Receives Average Target Price of $14

K12 Inc. (NYSE:LRN): 1 Brokerage firm Analysts have agreed with the mean estimate for the short term price target of $14 in K12 Inc. (NYSE:LRN). However, the stock price could fluctuate by $ 0 from the estimate as it is suggested by the standard deviation reading. The higher estimate has been put at $14 price target with the lower price estimate is calculated at $14The information is based on average recommendation on company rating and price target for short term (6 to 12 months) .

Shares of K12 Inc. (NYSE:LRN) ended the trading session higher after solid profit booking was seen in the counter during day trade. The trading commenced with the first trade executed at $15.03 and concluded with a gain of 0.63 points or 4.2% at $15.62. Intraday, some money was taken off the table which saw the price dip to $15.03. The volume at the end of the trading session was 652,549 shares. The 52-week high of the shares is $26.2 and the 52-week low is $10.07. The market cap of the company is $600 million and there are 38,412,000 shares in public circulation.

K12 Inc. (NYSE:LRN) has witnessed a colossal rise of 1.6% or 9,212 shares in its short figure. The short interest augmentation took it from 590,809 on December 31,2014 to 600,021 on January 15,2015. In terms of floated shares, the short interest was calculated to be 1.9%. The days to cover are 3 given that the daily volume averaged 235,139 shares.

K12 Inc. (K12) is a technology-based education company. K12 offers curriculum, software systems and educational services designed to facilitate individualized learning for students primarily in kindergarten through 12th grade, or K-12. The Company provides a continuum of technology-based educational products and solutions to districts, public schools, private schools, charter schools and families. Its products include Curriculum, Pre-K and K-8 Courses, Online School Platform-Learning Management System, High School Courses, Innovative Learning Applications, School Management Systems and PEAK12. Its managed public schools includes Full-time virtual schools and Blended schools, which includes Flex schools, Passport schools, Discovery schools and Other blended schools. In June 2014, it sold its select businesses to Safanad Education Ventures Limited (Safanad Limited).